Hariram AP; International Conference on AIDS.

Int Conf AIDS. 2000 Jul 9-14; 13: abstract no. MoPeC2461.

AnandPagadala Hariram, Government College, Indian Society for Soc. Sci. and Medicine, India

Issues: Since 1984, two broad approaches for modeling the AIDS epidemic have been suggested. (a) Empirical or statistical methods and (b) mathematical modeling. Empirical methods include those that assume that there exists a trend in AIDS incidence that can be described by a function form, and that the trend will not change in the near future. A three stage Stochastic Model:} Basically, for individuals in a risk population in the AIDS epidemic, there are three infection/disease classifications: uninfected, infected and having AIDS. The uninfected class can be divided into two subclasses: susceptible and non-susceptible to HIV infection. Random Allocation Methods in an Epidemic Model: It is an important method of HIV transmission is through needle sharing among intravenous drug. Keeping track of the number of contact: Suppose now that b (= 0.35, say) is the probability that HIV transmitted through an infected needle making a single contact with a susceptible. Then if there are k infectious contacts, through k infected needles, the probability of HIV transmission is b k = 1 = (1 - b )k . Discussion: From the analysis of the data for Elisa the cases of AIDS in Tamil Nadu (second highest AIDS infected state in India) one of the southern state of India, from the time period to 1986 to 1996 it has been found that out of reasons homosexual, heterosexual, IVD users, blood donors, prisoners, antenatal mothers, suspected AIDS patients, relatives of AIDS and others, probability of prevalence of AIDS with heterosexual group in the 0.5. Random allocation method has been applied to this case for AIDS propagation and found that b = 0.29 is the probability that the HIV is transmitted through heterosexual group making a single contact and if there are infective contacts through k individuals, the probability of HIV transmission is b k = 1 - 1 - b )k . The weighted percentage of the average in these groups have also been calculated to obtain the index of Heterosexual group in higher than in other groups. Conclusion: Besides other methods, the Random Allocation Method of epidemic modeling is best suited for the propagation of epidemic AIDS. This would help the public health people to speed up their advertising means in the know how of AIDS future course of spread.

Publication Types:

• Meeting Abstracts

Keywords:

• Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
• Disease Outbreaks
• HIV Infections
• HIV Seropositivity
• Humans
• India
• Models, Biological
• Probability
• Random Allocation
• Substance Abuse, Intravenous

Other ID:

• GWAIDS0000625

UI: 102238116

From Meeting Abstracts